In Iraq, the primary targets remain US troops. But, we are seeing increasingly indesciminate attacks on the civilian population - not just among members of the new government (officials, police, etc), but among random civilians. As more of those occur, the civilians are going to be less inclined to support the insurgency.With that in mind, I spent a few minutes at Iraq Body Count (IBC), and I learned that, indeed, civilian deaths are going up. However:
- The site doesn't distinguish "civilians not cooperating with Americans killed by insurgents" from any other group.
- Reported incidents have been going up pretty constantly since May 2003.
- Reported deaths are not at record highs.
Finally, while this search for truth is interesting (and notably fruitless), my mind keeps wandering back to what the metaphorical White House is saying: "we think the resistance is about to end, but we can't tell you why." Maybe they're right, but the statement does not instill confidence.