If a woman is sexually active from age 18 until menopause (age 50.5), how many pregnancies can she expect with various methods?I computed this for both typical use and ideal conditions.
The most effective method was male sterilization. In the ideal, it's the same as the pill, and typical use is only a tiny bit worse than the ideal (how exactly someone misuses this method, I have no idea). In any case, typically expect .05 pregnancies over the woman's lifetime if she has sex only with sterilized men (.03, ideal).
A typical user of the pill will get pregnant 1.6 times (again, ideally, .03 times).
Latex condoms with spermicide will get one pregnant 4.6 times, typically, but ideally only .98 times.
Methods of birth control that don't involve anything but calendars and discipline will ideally produce a little over one child and typically produce anywhere from 4.6 to 8.1 children.
A woman who does nothing to control birth will likely be involved in about 27 of them, assuming she survives them all. Frankly, while this question allows for the hypothetical woman to become pregnant at 50 years of age, I have a hard time with the notion on a practical level.
So, what have we learned?
- To avoid pregnancy and have a sex life, our hypothetical woman's best shot is sterilization (male sterilization).
- Abstinence is ideal for pregnancy prevention, of course, as long as our hypothetical woman doesn't get raped. (And, I mean "ideal" in the sense that the "ideal" cure for a headache is amputation.)
- Without sterilization, an active sex life carries a pretty significant probability of eventual pregnancy.
2 comments:
I suspect that "misuse" of male sterilization involves either (a) resumption of sexual activity to soon (since I believe that you remain fertile for a short period following a vasectomy, until all the sperm in the ducts have been cleared out or died); or (b) spontaneous healing or an imperfectly performed procedure (in much the same way as fallopian tubes can sometimes spontaneously reconnect).
Actually, the lowest, non-abstaining method of birth control is a hysterectomy (after all, no uterus = no kids), but since it is, by it's very nature, utterly irreversible, it's not considered a birth control method.
Hysterectomy! I didn't think of that (it wasn't on the list I looked at). I don't normally think of sterilization as reversible, but I guess they are, technically.
As for misuse, those sound plausible, but the table lists typical and ideal as the same for female sterilization, so I'm guessing it doesn't include spontaneous healing. Early resumption is easy to believe.
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